31 May 2009

Unemployment, foreclosures, and this vicious circle

Reuters recently reported on findings by the Mortgage Bankers Association that about 12 percent of mortgaged U.S. homeowners "ended the first quarter late on loan payments or in the foreclosure process in a crisis that will persist for at least another year until unemployment peaks."

12 percent!

The same piece goes on to say that "U.S. unemployment in April reached its highest rate in more than a quarter century and is still rising, helping propel mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures to record highs."

So they don't expect unemployment to peak for at least another year. So, for at least another year, people will have difficulty making their mortgage payments.

Without money to pay the mortgage, they are not going to buy new cars. So can there be any hope for the U.S. auto industry even if it does manage to get its own act together?

And, without money to pay the mortgage, they are not going to buy any other luxury goods. Which will mean more layoffs among the people who make those goods and the people who sell them.

And on and on and on....

Does the financial crisis of the past six months represent only the tip of a huge iceberg ahead?

And can it possibly be fixed through those taxpayer bailouts of the bankers who created this mess?

That, it seems, would depend on which definition of the word "fixed" is chosen.

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